The fluctuation of Bitcoin prices between $83,000 and $100,000 has become the focus of investors weighing the pros and cons of strategically entering the market and the potential risk of a collapse. Given that on-chain indicators, macroeconomic pressures, and institutional behavior all point to a fragile balance, the question remains: is this consolidation a precursor to a bull market rebound, or a deeper sign of an impending bear market?
链上指标：波动中的积累
Glassnode的链上数据揭示了一幅更为细致的图景。市场价值与实际价值之比（MVRV）目前处于1.9历史上，这一水平通常与牛市扩张初期阶段相关，而非极度乐观的顶部。
根据 IFCCI 分析这表明，尽管短期持有者（STH）正面临损失——这一点已得到证实——-22% STH-NUPL长期持有者（LTH）依然保持韧性。鲸鱼交易活动进一步强化了这种二元性：持有量100–1,000 BTC余额增加连续三个月表明机构投资者和高净值投资者正在增持。 根据 IFCCI 的数据.